The Quiet Rise of Uranium
In the noise of tech IPOs, AI hype cycles, and crypto chaos, one ancient element has been quietly mounting an explosive comeback: uranium. Once vilified after disasters like Fukushima and Chernobyl, uranium is now making its way back into the portfolios of forward-looking investors, governments, and energy strategists.
But why?
Because the world is rethinking what energy security really means.
As fossil fuel dependence collides with climate urgency, and as geopolitical shocks like the Russia-Ukraine war expose the vulnerabilities of global energy supply chains, the search for stable, clean, and scalable power has circled back to an unlikely hero: nuclear energy.
And at the heart of the uranium revival? Cameco Corp (NYSE: CCJ) — the second-largest publicly traded uranium producer in the world and arguably the best-positioned player in this once-niche sector.
With its mines tucked safely in politically stable Canada and a reputation for disciplined production, Cameco is not a story of speculative moonshots. It’s a story of patient positioning. The company has waited through nearly a decade of slumping prices, quietly managing its balance sheet, preserving resources, and waiting for the world to wake up. That moment may have finally arrived.
The New Global Energy Math
Before we even get to the company, let’s zoom out for a second. Here’s the new energy equation that governments and investors are being forced to grapple with:
- Solar and wind are intermittent – great, but not 24/7.
- Batteries are expensive and raw-material constrained – especially with China dominating the rare earth supply.
- Hydro and geothermal are geography-dependent.
- Coal and gas are increasingly unpopular.
- And oil? Volatile, geopolitically entangled, and carbon-heavy.
This leaves nuclear — the only scalable, base-load, low-carbon power source with the ability to complement renewables — as a key part of any realistic decarbonization strategy. It’s not about idealism. It’s about math.
And that’s where uranium re-enters the chat.
Nuclear Renaissance 2.0
Between 2011 and 2020, nuclear investment practically froze. After Fukushima, public perception soured and governments hesitated. But 2021 onwards, we’ve seen a dramatic shift:
- France reversed its anti-nuclear stance and is investing in next-gen reactors.
- Japan restarted multiple reactors.
- China is planning over 150 new nuclear plants.
- The U.S. passed the Inflation Reduction Act, which includes nuclear credits.
- Even developing countries like India and the UAE are jumping into nuclear expansion.
This isn’t just talk. According to the World Nuclear Association, more than 60 reactors are under construction globally, and over 100 are in the planning pipeline.
This isn’t hype. It’s policy-backed, funding-backed transformation.
What This Means for Uranium
Nuclear plants don’t run on hope or sentiment. They run on uranium.
But here’s the kicker: uranium isn’t like oil or coal. The uranium market is illiquid, opaque, and tiny in comparison — with only a handful of producers controlling a majority of supply.
Add to that:
- Years of underinvestment
- Supply chain disruptions due to COVID and war
- Concentrated supply in politically risky regions like Kazakhstan and Russia
Suddenly, the price of uranium is no longer just a reflection of demand. It’s also a reflection of who controls the spigots.
Cameco: The Most Important Company You Haven’t Been Watching
This is where Cameco comes in. While other miners scaled back or folded operations during the uranium bear market, Cameco did something rare — it stayed disciplined. It reduced output intentionally to support prices, maintained its assets, and signed long-term contracts only when margins made sense.
Today, it owns some of the most productive uranium assets on the planet, including:
- McArthur River: One of the world’s largest and highest-grade uranium mines.
- Cigar Lake: Operated in partnership with Orano, another uranium heavyweight.
- Inkai (JV in Kazakhstan): Although located in a geopolitically sensitive zone, Cameco’s structured partnership ensures long-term access.
That balance of high-grade resources, Canadian jurisdiction, and long-term strategy is why institutions like BlackRock, Vanguard, and state-run energy companies have been loading up on CCJ stock.
The market is in the early innings of a structural shift — one that echoes the early 2000s commodities supercycle but with cleaner branding. Nuclear energy is being rebranded from villain to savior. And uranium is becoming a scarce, strategic resource.
If you’re wondering why Cameco’s stock is up over 645% in five years, it’s not just because of Reddit or speculators. It’s because the thesis has changed.
And while most of the market is busy analyzing AI chipmakers or EV battery startups, the world’s uranium supply is quietly being cornered.
Cameco isn’t riding a trend. It’s anchoring it.
Absolutely. Here’s Chapter 2 of your newsletter:
Cameco Corp at a Glance
When you think of global energy titans, names like ExxonMobil, Chevron, or Shell may come to mind. But if nuclear energy becomes the base-load backbone of a decarbonized grid — as many now believe it must — then Cameco Corp (NYSE: CCJ) might quietly become one of the most strategically important energy players of the next decade.
Cameco isn’t a flashy name. It doesn’t operate oil rigs in the North Sea or launch billion-dollar green hydrogen pilots. But its quiet strength lies in control over uranium — the fuel that powers nuclear reactors worldwide.
Let’s break down who Cameco is, what it owns, and how it makes money.
Origins and Business Model
Founded in 1988 via the merger of Saskatchewan Mining Development Corporation and Eldorado Nuclear Limited, Cameco (short for “Canadian Mining and Energy Corporation”) is headquartered in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada.
Its business model is simple, yet powerful:
- Mine and produce uranium from tier-one assets
- Sell uranium under long-term contracts to nuclear utilities worldwide
- Expand downstream presence in fuel services like conversion and refining (especially after acquiring a stake in Westinghouse)
Cameco is what you’d call a vertically integrated uranium major — one of only a few firms in the world with control over every step of the nuclear fuel cycle, from raw ore to reactor-ready fuel.
Global Operations
Cameco’s portfolio spans some of the world’s highest-grade uranium deposits. Let’s highlight the major ones:
1. McArthur River & Key Lake (Canada)
- One of the highest-grade uranium mines in the world
- Recently restarted after being kept on care-and-maintenance for years
- Supplies uranium with U3O8 content up to 20% grade, which is 100x the global average
2. Cigar Lake (Canada)
- Operated in partnership with Orano, another uranium giant
- High-grade ore body with long mine life
- Located in the Athabasca Basin, often dubbed the “Saudi Arabia of uranium”
3. Inkai JV (Kazakhstan)
- Joint venture with Kazatomprom, the world’s largest uranium producer
- While Kazakhstan has geopolitical risk, Cameco’s 40% stake and long-term offtake agreements make this a strategically important hedge
4. Conversion Services & Fuel Fabrication
- Cameco owns uranium refining and conversion facilities in Ontario
- With increased geopolitical tensions, western utilities are trying to de-risk supply chains by shifting away from Russian enrichment — Cameco’s value-added services become crucial here
5. Westinghouse Acquisition (Partial Stake)
- In 2022, Cameco teamed up with Brookfield Renewable Partners to acquire a major stake in Westinghouse Electric Company, a global leader in nuclear reactor design and services
- This gives Cameco downstream leverage and opens the door to recurring service revenue
In short, Cameco isn’t just a miner anymore. It’s becoming a full-cycle nuclear energy play.
Financial Snapshot (as of July 2025)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Stock Price | $75.19 |
| Market Cap | $32.73B |
| Enterprise Value | $33.18B |
| P/E Ratio | 184.7 |
| Forward P/E | 47.17 |
| EV/EBITDA | 54.43 |
| P/S | 13.86 |
| P/B | 7.26 |
| PEG Ratio | 3.26 |
| EPS (TTM) | $0.41 |
| EPS Next Year | $1.59 |
| Gross Margin | 25.11% |
| Net Margin | 7.50% |
| ROE | 3.93% |
| ROIC | 3.40% |
| Current Ratio | 2.71 |
| Debt/Equity | 0.15 |
| Insider Ownership | 0.34% |
| Institutional Ownership | 76.92% |
Interpretation:
Cameco looks expensive on paper — extremely high P/E, P/S, and EV/EBITDA ratios — but institutional investors are not paying for past earnings. They’re betting on future uranium shortages and long-term contracts being repriced higher. The financials show low debt, strong liquidity, and moderate profitability — all solid traits for a capital-intensive resource company.
Revenue Model: Contracting vs Spot Market
Cameco doesn’t blindly sell into the volatile spot market. Instead, it prioritizes multi-year supply contracts with utilities.
Benefits of long-term contracts:
- Predictable cash flows
- Reduced sensitivity to short-term price swings
- Higher average realized price vs spot in bull markets
That said, Cameco has gradually increased exposure to the spot market during this uranium bull run, allowing them to capture upside while still maintaining long-term relationships with utility customers.
Strategic Evolution
In the past, Cameco was purely a volume-driven miner. But today, it is evolving into something much more:
- A vertically integrated nuclear fuel supplier
- A risk-hedged portfolio manager of assets in multiple jurisdictions
- A quiet participant in the West’s energy security strategy
This transformation isn’t obvious at first glance. But it’s evident in the moves Cameco has made:
- Acquiring refining capacity
- Entering fuel fabrication
- Partnering with a government-backed giant like Brookfield
- Expanding into emerging markets via new contract wins
If uranium is oil’s successor in the energy hierarchy, then Cameco wants to be its ExxonMobil — not just a miner, but a system-critical player in how clean energy gets delivered to nations.
The Institutional Backing Story
Some of the world’s most respected institutional investors are significantly exposed to Cameco:
- BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street own large stakes
- It is included in multiple ESG-focused energy transition ETFs
- Hedge funds with a long-term macro focus (like Sprott) have publicly disclosed bullish uranium theses
Why are they buying despite high valuations?
Because Cameco is one of the only investable pure-play uranium giants in the Western world. Unlike smaller, riskier explorers, it has:
- Real cash flows
- Real contracts
- Real infrastructure
And most importantly — real geopolitical credibility.
Cameco isn’t just a mining stock. It’s a strategic asset disguised as an equity. It has survived the brutal downcycle in uranium, optimized its cost base, and aligned its future with the global energy transition.
As investors scramble to reposition their portfolios for an energy future that includes security, scalability, and sustainability, Cameco stands out.
Because while the world is trying to build the future, Cameco already owns the parts.
Absolutely. Here’s a more concise version of Chapter 3 – Understanding the Uranium Supply Chain, keeping the flow tight yet informative.
Understanding the Uranium Supply Chain
To understand Cameco’s real value, you need to grasp how uranium gets from rock to reactor. It’s a complex, multi-step process — and Cameco is one of the few companies involved in every critical stage.
Step 1: Mining & Milling
Uranium begins as uranium ore, typically mined from underground or open-pit mines. Cameco’s McArthur River and Cigar Lake mines in Canada are world-class, producing exceptionally high-grade ore.
Once mined, the ore is milled into yellowcake (U3O8) — a powder that serves as the raw material for nuclear fuel.
Step 2: Conversion
Yellowcake is chemically processed into uranium hexafluoride (UF6). This is a critical step for enrichment — and Cameco owns conversion facilities in Ontario, a big deal as the West tries to move away from reliance on Russian facilities.
Step 3: Enrichment & Fabrication
UF6 is enriched to increase the percentage of fissile U-235, typically from 0.7% to 3–5%. This is not Cameco’s core strength (yet), but it has indirect exposure via its stake in Westinghouse — which handles fuel fabrication, turning enriched uranium into pellets and rods for nuclear reactors.
Step 4: Utility Contracts & Delivery
Utilities don’t buy uranium on the spot like oil. They sign long-term contracts (5–15 years), prioritizing stable supply over cheap price.
Cameco leverages its scale, stability, and geopolitical neutrality to win such contracts — making it one of the most trusted suppliers globally.
Strategic Insight
The uranium supply chain is:
- Opaque
- Highly concentrated
- Hard to replace
There are only a handful of players with vertical integration, and Cameco is at the top of that list outside of state-owned entities.
Why This Matters
This vertical control means Cameco isn’t just a bet on uranium prices — it’s a hedge on global energy security. As geopolitical instability increases and nuclear demand rises, countries will turn to trusted, diversified suppliers. That puts Cameco in the driver’s seat.
Why Uranium Now? Industry Tailwinds and Policy Shifts
Uranium isn’t a trendy investment — it’s a structural play. After a lost decade post-Fukushima, uranium is now riding multiple powerful tailwinds that aren’t going away anytime soon.
1. Global Energy Crisis & Security
The Russia-Ukraine war shattered the myth of reliable fossil fuel supply. Europe scrambled to find alternatives. Suddenly, energy security became a national priority — and nuclear power emerged as a clean, local, stable solution.
2. Nuclear Renaissance in Policy
Governments are funding nuclear again:
- US Inflation Reduction Act offers subsidies for reactors.
- France and Japan are restarting or expanding nuclear fleets.
- China plans over 150 new reactors — more than the rest of the world combined.
This isn’t just policy fluff. Reactors are getting built, and they need uranium — lots of it.
3. Supply Constraints
While demand rises, supply has lagged for years:
- Few new mines developed
- Russia and Kazakhstan dominate global supply
- Post-COVID logistics disruptions
Add rising interest in uranium ETFs and physical uranium trusts (like Sprott) soaking up spot supply, and prices have spiked — yet supply hasn’t caught up.
4. ESG-Driven Energy Mix
Ironically, nuclear is now ESG-friendly:
- Zero carbon emissions
- Small land footprint
- Baseload stability (unlike solar/wind)
That’s turning even ESG-focused investors and funds toward uranium names like Cameco.
What makes this uranium bull cycle different?
- It’s policy-supported
- It’s security-driven
- And it’s supply-constrained
In short: this time, it’s real. And Cameco — with its safe assets, global reach, and conversion capabilities — is positioned as the go-to supplier in the new nuclear age.
Scenario Analysis – How War, Climate, and China Could Change Everything
When you’re investing in a commodity-driven stock like Cameco, you’re not just betting on the company — you’re betting on how the world behaves. Here’s a breakdown of five real-world scenarios that could dramatically reshape the uranium industry, for better or worse.
Scenario 1: Geopolitical Shock – War or Resource Nationalism
What if… a new war breaks out in a uranium-rich region like Kazakhstan or Niger?
- Impact on Supply: Disruption in exports from countries that dominate low-cost uranium mining (e.g., Kazatomprom in Kazakhstan).
- Impact on Prices: Spot uranium prices could spike as Western nations scramble for secure supply.
- Impact on Cameco: Positive. As a Canadian producer in a stable jurisdiction, Cameco becomes a premium geopolitical hedge. Expect rising contract volumes and better pricing power.
Scenario 2: Climate Crisis Escalates Faster Than Expected
What if… we see a series of extreme weather events or record heatwaves that accelerate public and political demand for decarbonization?
- Impact on Energy Policy: Countries fast-track net-zero targets and double down on nuclear to stabilize renewables.
- Impact on Uranium Demand: Higher, driven by more reactor builds and faster timelines.
- Impact on Cameco: Very bullish. This would compress the decade-long demand curve into a 5-year window, rewarding suppliers with existing output.
Scenario 3: Nuclear Plant Incidents – Safety Backlash
What if… a major nuclear accident or near-miss occurs (like a Fukushima-type event)?
- Impact on Sentiment: Global pushback. Some countries may halt expansion or roll back nuclear programs.
- Impact on Uranium Demand: Temporarily lower.
- Impact on Cameco: Short-term correction likely. But the company’s position in Western democracies and safe mining practices could help it rebound faster than junior miners.
Scenario 4: China Goes All-In on Nuclear
What if… China decides to become the undisputed nuclear leader?
- Impact on Reactor Construction: Already leading with 150+ new reactors proposed. Could double or triple.
- Impact on Uranium Imports: China would lock in long-term supply at scale.
- Impact on Cameco: Significant upside — China could become a long-term customer via state-owned contracts. Plus, global prices could rise on China-driven buying pressure.
Scenario 5: Global Shift Away from Russian Fuel Cycle
What if… sanctions on Russia expand or persist, blocking uranium enrichment services?
- Impact on Western Utilities: Panic. Russia currently handles a huge % of global enrichment capacity.
- Impact on Conversion/Refining: Cameco’s Ontario facilities become goldmines.
- Impact on Cameco: Bullish for its downstream business. The company could see a rush of contracts for conversion and fuel services, not just raw uranium.
Summary of Scenarios
| Scenario | Uranium Price | Cameco Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| War / Supply Disruption | ↑↑ | Very Positive |
| Climate Crisis Acceleration | ↑ | Very Positive |
| Nuclear Accident / Safety Fear | ↓ | Short-Term Risk |
| China Nuclear Buildout | ↑ | Strong Positive |
| Russian Fuel Cycle Sanctions | ↑ | Positive (esp. fuel business) |
Cameco is one of the rare stocks that benefits in four out of five major macro scenarios. Whether driven by fear (war, sanctions) or hope (climate goals, China growth), the uranium story keeps getting stronger.
And because Cameco isn’t just a miner — but a vertically integrated, geopolitically neutral fuel provider — it’s positioned as a core strategic supplier in an increasingly fractured world.
Technical Analysis – A Stock at Breakout
While Cameco’s long-term fundamentals are robust, the technical setup tells us what’s happening right now. And right now, CCJ is behaving like a coiled spring — testing resistance and eyeing new highs.
Let’s break down what the chart reveals.
Current Price Snapshot (as of July 7, 2025)
- Stock Price: $75.19
- 52-Week High: $75.42
- 52-Week Low: $35.00
- YTD Performance: +46.31%
- 1-Year Gain: +51.20%
- 3-Year Gain: +245.54%
- 5-Year Gain: +645.19%
Conclusion: This isn’t a recent pump. It’s a multi-year secular uptrend, supported by both macro tailwinds and company-specific strength.
Moving Averages: Strong Bullish Alignment
- 20-Day SMA: $69.71
- 50-Day SMA: $59.16
- 200-Day SMA: $51.81
The stock is trading well above all its key moving averages. This signals momentum strength, investor confidence, and institutional interest.
The 20-day average > 50-day > 200-day structure is a classic bullish setup.
Momentum Indicators
- RSI (14): 71.22 → Overbought Zone
Interpretation: The stock may be due for a short-term pullback or consolidation, but strong uptrends often stay overbought. - Volume Analysis:
Cameco has seen consistent volume spikes during rallies, indicating real buying conviction — not just algorithmic trading.
Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price Range | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance | $75.42 (ATH) | Stock is testing this now |
| Near Support | $69.00 – $70.00 | Recent breakout level |
| Major Support | $60.00 | Former resistance, now strong floor |
A clean break above $75.42 on high volume would signal a technical breakout, potentially opening up a new leg higher.
Chart Pattern Setup
Cup-and-Handle Formation (possible):
Over the past year, CCJ has formed a rounded bottom followed by a tight consolidation near its highs — resembling a textbook “cup and handle,” a classic bullish continuation pattern.
If confirmed with volume, this could project an upside target of $90–$95 over the next few quarters.
What Could Trigger the Next Move?
- New long-term contract announcements
- Uranium spot price breakout
- Further institutional accumulation
- Positive geopolitical developments (e.g., nuclear incentives, China demand)
Technical Outlook Summary
| Factor | Signal |
|---|---|
| Price Action | Strong uptrend |
| RSI | Overbought |
| Moving Averages | Bullish stack |
| Volume | Healthy |
| Chart Pattern | Breakout-ready |
| Risk (Short-Term) | Pullback possible |
Cameco’s technical chart is not just bullish — it’s textbook. With the stock hovering near all-time highs, it’s poised to either break out or retrace slightly before doing so. Long-term trend followers already in the trade have no reason to exit. For new investors, waiting for a confirmed breakout or modest dip might offer a cleaner entry.
Either way, technicals reinforce what the macro picture is already hinting at: this is not a crowded trade, it’s a growing one.
Valuation Deep Dive – Metrics, Multiples, and Market Expectations
At first glance, Cameco looks wildly overvalued.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 184.7 |
| Forward P/E | 47.17 |
| EV/EBITDA | 54.43 |
| P/S | 13.86 |
| P/B | 7.26 |
| PEG Ratio | 3.26 |
These figures are well above sector averages, and a typical value investor might scoff. But in commodity investing — especially uranium — context matters more than absolute numbers.
Why the Valuation Looks High:
- Low trailing earnings due to years of depressed uranium prices
- Market is pricing in exponential future growth, not past performance
- Strategic geopolitical positioning gives Cameco premium multiple compared to global peers
- Scarcity premium: very few pure-play uranium miners exist in politically stable jurisdictions
The Market’s Expectation:
The market is betting that:
- Uranium prices will remain elevated or rise
- Cameco will lock in long-term high-margin contracts
- Supply will remain constrained globally
- Demand for nuclear power will structurally increase over the next decade
In short, valuation isn’t about today — it’s about the next 5–10 years.
Risks and Red Flags
Even strong macro stories carry risks. Here’s what investors should monitor closely:
1. Valuation Compression
- If uranium prices plateau or fall, Cameco’s premium multiple may contract rapidly.
2. Operational Delays
- Any disruption at McArthur River or Cigar Lake would directly impact supply and earnings.
3. Regulatory Pushback
- Nuclear still faces social stigma. A major global accident (even in a different country) could lead to project cancellations or delays.
4. Over-reliance on Institutional Hype
- A reversal in macro or ESG sentiment could trigger institutional outflows.
5. Kazakhstan Exposure (Inkai JV)
- Though diversified, part of Cameco’s production still comes from a geopolitically sensitive region.
Competitor Landscape
Cameco’s closest competitors include:
| Company | Ticker | Strengths |
|---|---|---|
| Kazatomprom | KAP.L | World’s largest producer, state-backed |
| Uranium Energy Corp | UEC | U.S.-based, fast-growing junior |
| Denison Mines | DNN | Explorer in Canada’s Athabasca Basin |
| NexGen Energy | NXE | High-grade discovery, long-term potential |
| Sprott Physical Uranium Trust | U.U | Doesn’t mine, but buys physical uranium to squeeze supply |
What Sets Cameco Apart?
- Diversified operations
- Proven production history
- Western jurisdiction
- Conversion/fuel exposure
- Institutional trust & scale
Most of its peers are either speculative or state-controlled. Cameco is the go-to name for long-term uranium exposure in the West.
Final Verdict – Should You Watch, Hold, or Buy?
🟢 Bull Case Summary
- Structural bull market in uranium driven by energy security and decarbonization
- Tier-1 assets in safe jurisdictions
- Vertically integrated with fuel services exposure
- Institutional support and government alignment
🔴 Bear Case Summary
- High valuation priced for perfection
- Short-term corrections likely after overbought rallies
- Nuclear is still politically sensitive
- Earnings can be lumpy based on contract timing
Verdict
| Investment Horizon | Recommendation | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Short-Term (1–3 months) | Watch | RSI is overbought; pullback possible |
| Medium-Term (3–12 months) | Hold | Macro trend intact, breakout brewing |
| Long-Term (1–5 years) | Buy on Dips | One of the best pure-play bets on global nuclear resurgence |
Cameco is no longer just a cyclical uranium miner — it’s a long-term, strategic energy play. For investors looking beyond the next earnings call and into the next energy cycle, CCJ belongs on your radar, and quite possibly, in your portfolio.