More Than Just a Travel App
If you’ve booked a vacation in India, there’s a good chance it began with MakeMyTrip Ltd. But this stock isn’t just riding on sunny beaches and hotel discounts. It’s navigating a world of complex risks — from geopolitical tensions, oil price shocks, and war zones to aviation safety scandals and currency fluctuations.
Investors worldwide are now asking:
Is MMYT just a post-COVID rebound play, or is it India’s next global tech success story?
Let’s break down what’s happening under the hood of this travel juggernaut — and whether it belongs in your portfolio.
Company Snapshot & Financial Position
Founded in 2000 and listed on the NASDAQ in 2010, MakeMyTrip dominates India’s online travel agency (OTA) space, competing against the likes of Yatra and Cleartrip.
Key Stats:
- Market Cap: $11.89 Billion
- Revenue (TTM): $978 Million
- Net Income: $95.1 Million
- P/E Ratio: 115.48
- EV/EBITDA: 77.74
- Cash per Share: $6.12
- Debt/Equity: 0.23
- Employees: 5,122
It boasts strong fundamentals: low debt, positive net income, and margins of nearly 10% net and 12% operating. But that P/E of over 115 tells us investors are paying a massive premium — and that means MMYT has to consistently outperform to justify it.
Technical Overview – A Chart with a Story
Price at July 3, 2025: $95.69
- 52-Week High: $123
- 52-Week Low: $76.95
- 200-Day Moving Average: $103.62
- RSI (14): 45.96 (Neutral)
Technically, MMYT is struggling to break the downward sloping resistance since January. The 200-day moving average is acting like a ceiling. But the $85–88 support zone has held strong twice — signaling institutional accumulation.
Short-term takeaway: Wait for a breakout above $110 or re-enter around $88 for value.
Geopolitical & War-Time Impact on MMYT
1. India–Pakistan Airspace Crisis (2025)
In March 2025, escalating tensions between India and Pakistan caused both nations to restrict civilian airspace temporarily. MMYT saw a 10% stock drop in 48 hours as international bookings plummeted and refund volumes soared.
Impact:
- Surge in flight cancellations
- Delay in holiday bookings for northern India and Middle East routes
- Users diverted to domestic travel only
2. Middle East Conflict: Iran–Israel & Oil Spikes
The 2024–2025 Iran-Israel tensions pushed oil prices above $120/barrel briefly, sending aviation costs surging. Airlines hiked ticket prices by 30–40%, and MMYT saw visible drop-offs in bookings, especially to Dubai, Istanbul, and Tel Aviv.
Impact:
- Margins squeezed due to lower travel appetite
- Spike in “trip protection” purchases
- MMYT had to temporarily pull promotional offers for these destinations
3. Turkey & Azerbaijan Backlash
Following protests over diplomatic alignments in India, MakeMyTrip stopped advertising tour packages to Turkey and Azerbaijan. Cancellation rates went up 250% in Q1 2025 alone.
Investor Impact:
- Raised questions on political neutrality of global OTAs
- Reputational risks emerged among global users
Aviation Incidents – When Planes Affect Portfolios
The 2025 Ahmedabad Air Crash
One of Air India’s Boeing 787s crashed in May 2025, killing 241 people — including dozens of NRIs and tourists. Investigations linked the tragedy to mechanical failure, sparking a global review of India’s aviation safety protocols.
MakeMyTrip’s response:
- Suspended Air India bookings for 4 weeks
- Introduced new trip insurance partners
- Added “aircraft safety score” indicators on bookings
Stock Consequence: Shares dipped 8% post-crash due to fear-driven cancellations. Domestic travel slowed as consumer trust was shaken.
But MMYT’s rapid crisis management was applauded, helping it recover 50% of the drop within two weeks.
Macro Trends – How the World Moves, So Does MakeMyTrip
MakeMyTrip’s performance isn’t driven solely by app downloads or marketing. The macro environment plays a critical role, especially for a business built on movement, optimism, and disposable income.
1. Oil Prices
Jet fuel is one of the largest cost components in the travel industry. While MMYT doesn’t operate aircraft, airfare sensitivity directly affects bookings.
- When Brent crude shot past $120 in 2024 due to Middle East tensions, airfare surged.
- MMYT’s volume growth stalled in Q2 2024, even with discounts.
- Price-conscious Indian travelers postponed international travel — a trend reflected in MMYT’s weaker Q2 margins.
2. USD/INR Volatility
As a U.S.-listed firm earning mostly in Indian Rupees, currency risk is baked into MMYT’s story.
- A weak rupee (INR > 85/USD) erodes dollar earnings.
- It also affects travel affordability, making foreign trips more expensive for Indian users.
- Hedging mechanisms help, but FX still affects international segment margins.
3. Interest Rates & Consumer Spending
Higher rates = tighter wallets. Indian consumers cut back on discretionary spending during RBI’s hawkish cycles.
- Urban Tier-1 demand is resilient.
- But Tier-2 and Tier-3 expansion (a growth priority for MMYT) has seen price elasticity.
- Rising EMI burden and inflation may slow travel adoption in non-metro regions.
4. Tourism Infrastructure Boom
India’s budget allocations for tourism infrastructure (airports, highways, UPI-based payments at tourist hubs) strongly support MMYT’s long-term narrative.
- Government schemes like Dekho Apna Desh are driving domestic demand.
- Smart city rollouts and regional airline subsidies are expanding MMYT’s serviceable market.
Valuation – DCF Scenarios & Intrinsic Value
Given MMYT’s sky-high multiples, a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model helps ground expectations.
We assume a 5-year DCF with the following scenarios based on public filings, analyst consensus, and MMYT’s own disclosures.
Assumptions:
- Revenue FY2025: $978M
- Revenue Growth (Bull/Base/Bear): 30% / 22% / 15%
- EBITDA Margins: 16% / 14% / 10%
- WACC: 9%
- Terminal Growth Rate: 3%
Bull Case Scenario
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue in Year 5 | ~$3.6B |
| EBITDA Margin | 16% |
| FCF Margin | 12% |
| Implied Value | $135–140 per share |
| Upside from Current ($95.69) | +41% |
| Valuation Justification | India becomes global travel hotspot; MMYT gains from exclusive airline/hotel deals & Tier 2/3 dominance |
Base Case Scenario
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue in Year 5 | ~$2.5B |
| EBITDA Margin | 14% |
| FCF Margin | 10% |
| Implied Value | $98–105 per share |
| Upside | ~9% |
| Valuation Justification | Travel grows steadily, MMYT defends market share, but margins expand slowly |
Bear Case Scenario
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue in Year 5 | ~$1.9B |
| EBITDA Margin | 10% |
| FCF Margin | 7% |
| Implied Value | $70–75 per share |
| Downside Risk | -22% |
| Valuation Justification | Cost of customer acquisition rises, competition from Google Travel & Indian super-apps increase, slower macro tailwinds |
Investor Sentiment – Who’s Buying This?
1. Institutional Ownership
- 66.76% of MMYT shares are held by institutions.
- Recent transactions show net positive inflow, with a 58.59% institutional transaction ratio.
- Heavyweights include EMQQ, SPEM, and JETS — all bullish on India’s digitization.
2. Retail Behavior
- MMYT’s story resonates with Indian retail investors familiar with the brand.
- The stock remains popular on platforms like Robinhood and SoFi due to its clean tech-travel narrative.
- However, retail sentiment is sensitive to headline risks — especially airline crashes or war-related news.
3. Short Interest
- Short Float: 3.20%
- Short Ratio: 1.73
- This is relatively low, indicating the market isn’t aggressively betting against MMYT — a sign of trust in its growth trajectory.
Moat & Competitive Edge – What Makes MakeMyTrip Special?
1. Brand Loyalty in a Fragmented Market
Despite dozens of travel platforms, MakeMyTrip commands ~50%+ market share in India’s OTA space. Brand trust is its strongest currency, especially in Tier-1 cities. It was among the first to push travel bookings into the mobile-first ecosystem in India and has stayed ahead in UX and user engagement.
2. Tech-Driven Operations
MMYT has significantly upgraded its backend with AI-based recommendation systems, dynamic pricing models, and personalized trip curation. It also integrates with Indian Railways, private bus operators, and global hotel aggregators. Its mobile app remains among the most downloaded travel apps in Asia.
3. Diversified Revenue Streams
While flights and hotels are core, MMYT has steadily grown:
- Bus, rail, and cabs
- Holiday packages and curated trips
- Trip insurance and value-added services
This diversification makes it more resilient than single-service competitors.
4. Deep Vendor Integration
MMYT’s success isn’t just about consumer-facing tech. It has deep partnerships with airlines, hoteliers, IRCTC, and travel agents across India and Southeast Asia. This unlocks pricing advantages and booking reliability.
What Could Go Wrong?
1. Regulatory Clampdowns
As data privacy laws tighten in India and abroad, MMYT could face higher compliance costs. A data breach or regulatory violation could damage reputation and earnings.
2. Margin Pressure
In a discount-driven market, MMYT must keep CAC (customer acquisition cost) in check. Rising ad spend or increased reliance on discounts could impact EBITDA margins.
3. Global Recession Fears
If the U.S. or Eurozone enters recession, international travel demand could drop. Combined with high oil prices, this could dent both sentiment and revenue for MMYT.
Final Verdict — Is MMYT a Buy?
If you’re a long-term investor…
MMYT offers exposure to India’s travel boom, rising internet penetration, and a digitally native Gen Z population. If you’re willing to ride out geopolitical bumps, currency risks, and valuation volatility, MMYT could be a high-conviction holding.
If you’re a short-term trader…
The technical setup isn’t favorable yet. It’s trading below its 200-DMA with RSI in neutral territory. Unless it breaks above $110 with volume, risk remains. However, the $85–88 support range has proven strong for dip-buyers.
Actionable Buy/Sell Triggers
| Trigger | Action |
|---|---|
| Price drops to $88–90 with no macro red flags | Consider entry for long-term hold |
| Breakout above $110 on heavy volume | Momentum trade possible |
| P/E falls below 60 with stable EPS trend | Re-rate opportunity |
| Oil spikes above $130 or INR weakens past 90/USD | Consider trimming exposure |
| MMYT loses market share to new super-apps (like Tata Neu, Paytm Travel) | Reevaluate investment thesis |
FAQ Summary for Global Investors
Q1: Is MMYT just an India story?
Mostly, yes. Over 90% of its revenue is from Indian consumers, though it serves global travelers via Singapore and UAE units.
Q2: What about U.S. investor risks?
MMYT reports in USD but earns in INR. Currency volatility affects returns. However, it’s a rare NASDAQ-listed Indian tech travel stock — and offers portfolio diversification.
Q3: How risky is MMYT right now?
Moderate to high. Valuation is steep. But balance sheet strength and macro tailwinds balance that risk for patient investors.
Q4: Are there better alternatives?
Globally, stocks like Airbnb (ABNB), Booking Holdings (BKNG), or even Trip.com (TCOM) offer different exposure. But none have MMYT’s focused India advantage.
Q5: What’s your personal take?
If you believe India’s GDP per capita will cross $4,000 in the next decade, and Tier-2/3 cities will fuel discretionary travel, MMYT is well-positioned to ride that wave.
Closing Thought
MakeMyTrip isn’t just selling tickets — it’s selling freedom, aspiration, and movement in a rising economy.
But with that comes volatility, politics, pricing pressure, and black swan risks. If you can stomach short-term turbulence, this travel tech stock could take you far.